The electric vehicle (EV) revolution may be heading for a supply-chain snag, according to a new study published in Cell Reports Sustainability.
Rapidly rising demand for lithium – the critical ingredient in EV batteries – could outstrip domestic supply in major markets by the end of the decade.
The analysis focused on China, the US and Europe, which together account for 80 per cent of today’s EV sales. Researchers warn that without major changes, these regions will be unable to meet their lithium needs from local sources by 2030 – increasing their reliance on imports and heightening the risk of global shortages.
“A lot of previous studies have looked at how much lithium is needed for the low-carbon transition,” Dr André Månberger, co-author of the new study, told BBC Science Focus.
“The problem with those is that often they compare lithium demand in the future with how large the reserves in the ground are, or current mining rates. But there’s a gap in the literature on the feasibility of expanding mining.”
Globally, EV sales topped 17 million in 2024. That's a 25-per-cent increase on the previous year.
The International Energy Agency predicts that electric vehicles could make up 40 per cent of all car sales by 2030. However, that growth hinges on a steady supply of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) – a standard unit that represents how much lithium is usable for batteries.
The study projects that by 2030, annual demand for LCE will reach 1.3 million metric tons in China, 792,000 metric tons in Europe and 692,000 in the US. But even with all current and planned mining projects included, domestic supply would fall short: China could produce up to 1.1 million metric tons, the US 610,000 and Europe just 325,000.
That shortfall could intensify global competition for lithium, most of which currently comes from Australia, Chile and Argentina. In 2023, these three countries supplied nearly 80 per cent of the world’s lithium.
Because China already dominates the global lithium trade, an uptick in its imports could squeeze other buyers. The researchers found that if Chinese imports rise by 77 per cent, US and European imports would have to drop by 84 and 78 per cent, respectively.
“There is a lot of continuity and path dependency when it comes to the commodities trade,” Månberger said.
“That’s because you develop supply chains, you have contracts and everything. So you establish a lot of inertia.”
Still, there are reasons to be optimistic. Higher lithium prices could spur investment in new mining projects and push manufacturers to develop more efficient battery technologies. Alternatives to lithium, such as sodium-ion batteries, may also help diversify the market.
And in the longer term, recycling could play a bigger role. As the first generation of EVs reaches the end of its life in the 2030s, recovered materials from old batteries could reduce the need for fresh lithium extraction.
“I’m quite optimistic,” Månberger said. “What history shows us is that it’s often easy to forecast different types of bottlenecks, supply risks and so on, but when they do happen, there is so much innovation that is not possible to predict.”
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About our expert
André Månberger is a senior lecturer in environmental and energy systems studies at Lund University in Sweden. He leads the Mistra Mineral Governance research programme, which started in 2024 and analyses goal conflicts with increased demand for critical raw materials in low-carbon transition.