Out of 186 countries, only Guyana produces enough food to self-sufficiently feed all its citizens without foreign imports, according to new research.
The study, published in Nature Food, investigated how well each country could feed their populations in seven food groups: fruits, vegetables, dairy, fish, meat, plant-based protein and starchy staples.
Worldwide, the study found that 65 per cent of countries were overproducing meat and dairy, compared to their own population’s dietary needs.
It also found that Guyana, located in South America, was the only country that could boast total self-sufficiency, while China and Vietnam were close behind, being able to produced enough food in six out of seven food groups.
Just one in seven of the tested countries were judged self-sufficient in five or more categories.
At the same time, there was a global shortfall in nutrient-dense plants, with less than half of countries involved in the study producing enough plant-based protein – such as beans, chickpeas, lentils, nuts and seeds – or starchy carbs, and only 24 per cent growing enough vegetables.
Europe and South America were generally closer to being self-sufficient than other countries. But small island states, countries on the Arabian Peninsula and low-income countries were more likely to rely on foreign imports for food.
And six countries – Afghanistan, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Macao, Qatar and Yemen – did not produce enough of any food group to be considered self-sufficient in that category.
“Low self-sufficiency is not inherently bad,” Dr Jonas Stehl – researcher at Göttingen and first author of the study – told BBC Science Focus. “There are valid and often beneficial reasons why a country may not produce the majority of the food it needs.”
For instance, a country might not have enough rain, good-quality soil or stable temperatures to grow enough food for its population.
Stehl said it could be cost-effective, too, to import food from regions better suited to producing it.
“However, low levels of self-sufficiency can reduce a country’s capability to respond to sudden global food supply shocks such as droughts, wars or export bans,” he said.
To find this out, a team at the University of Göttingen, Germany and the University of Edinburgh, UK measured how much food each country produced.
Then they compared this to what was needed to meet their citizens’ nutritional requirements, according to the World Wildlife Fund’s Livewell diet.
The Livewell diet describes itself as “a flexible diet that involves rebalancing our protein consumption toward plants, eating more vegetables, pulses and wholegrains, and fewer foods high in fat, salt and sugar.”
Debates about the advantages of self-sufficiency have risen in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic or the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war – when instability disrupted the reliable supply of food to importing countries.
Stehl added that the “resurgence in interest” in national food self-sufficiency might also reflect broader political shifts, “including growing nationalism and a desire among some to reduce dependence on foreign countries.”
Stehl said: “Building resilient food supply chains is imperative for ensuring public health.”
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About our expert
Dr Jonas Stehl is a doctoral researcher at the University of Göttingen, Germany, who is looking into food systems and how they connect to sustainability, nutrition and health, from a global perspective. He is a member of an interdisciplinary research training group called Sustainable Food Systems. Stehl's research interests include the economics of development, health, the environment and populations, as well as nutrition and food security.
