The Atlantic hurricane season hasn’t even begun, and forecasters are already sounding the alarm. Yup, you heard that right: the 2025 season, which officially runs from 1 June to 30 November, is expected to be an unusually active one.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there’s a 60 per cent chance of above-normal activity – they're predicting up to 19 named storms, as many as 10 hurricanes, and between 3 and 5 major hurricanes (category 3 or above).
The private forecasting firm AccuWeather, meanwhile, offers a nearly identical outlook, but adds another stark prediction: up to six storms could directly impact the US coastline.
That’s unwelcome news after the devastation wrought by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024. “It looks like it's going to be yet another busy year overall,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, tells BBC Science Focus.
So, why are scientists so confident? While it’s still impossible to predict exactly when or where a storm will strike, there’s growing clarity around the larger forces that shape each season. This year, multiple climate indicators are all pointing in the same direction – it's going to be a bad one.
The Atlantic is storing energy – and lots of it
Hurricanes draw their strength from warm ocean waters, and this year, the Atlantic is serving up a vast reserve of heat.
“Sea surface temperatures are well above average yet again,” DaSilva says. While 2025 may not eclipse the record-breaking warmth of 2023 and 2024, conditions are still unusually hot across much of the Atlantic basin.
But it’s not just the surface that’s simmering. What really fuels the most powerful storms is ocean heat content – a measure of how deeply that warm water extends beneath the surface.
“It’s really impressive,” DaSilva says. “When you’re at the surface, the waters are nice and warm. Now imagine being hundreds of metres down in places like the Western Caribbean. During the heart of the season, it can still be 80°F [27°C] down there.”
That depth matters. Warm water acts like high-octane fuel for hurricanes – the deeper it goes, the more energy a storm can draw on. This is a key reason why so many recent hurricanes have undergone 'rapid intensification': strengthening dramatically in a matter of hours, often just before landfall.
“When you look at storms that rapidly intensify – the ones that explode – the majority of them happen in the Gulf, Western Caribbean or off the southeast coast because that’s where the ocean heat content is the highest.”
What’s now clear to scientists is that ocean heat content is rising year on year, driven by climate change. As the planet warms, much of the excess heat is absorbed by the oceans, creating deeper reservoirs of energy for storms to tap into.
This doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see more hurricanes overall, but the ones that do form are increasingly likely to strengthen rapidly and reach greater intensity.
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A shifting Pacific pattern could supercharge the end of the season
While the Atlantic provides the fuel, the Pacific plays puppet master.
The key player here is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a natural cycle of warming and cooling in the tropical Pacific. It has a powerful knock-on effect on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Entire books could be (and have been) written about ENSO, so let’s keep it brief. In El Niño years, warm water in the tropical Pacific shifts eastwards towards the Americas. In La Niña years, the opposite happens – warm water moves west towards Asia, while colder water wells up near the Americas.
These shifts don’t just affect the Pacific – they influence wind patterns across the globe, including the Atlantic, where they can either help or hinder hurricane formation.
Currently, the Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral phase, so the warm blob is somewhere in the middle. But that’s not necessarily good news.
“Research has shown that while La Niña years typically yield the most storms, neutral years are very, very close to them,” DaSilva says. “It’s really only El Niño years where there’s a significant drop.”
The reason for this? In El Niño years, strong upper-level winds from the Pacific can shear apart storms as they develop in the Atlantic. But in neutral or La Niña years, those winds ease off, allowing hurricanes to form and strengthen more easily.
What’s more, there’s a possibility that La Niña conditions could return later this year, potentially setting the stage for a busy end to the season.
“There’s a chance that La Niña could make a comeback late in the season,” DaSilva says. “That’s going to have to be watched carefully because if that happens, the end of the season could be more favourable for storms.”
That’s becoming more common, with recent seasons showing a trend towards more late-season storms, fuelled by lingering warmth and favourable atmospheric conditions.
Where storms go depends on who’s steering
Ocean temperatures and ENSO conditions may be the main characters in this drama, but they’re by no means the only members of the cast.
Features such as the Bermuda–Azores High, a dominant area of high pressure over the central Atlantic, play a key role in shaping where storms end up once they’ve formed.
“This area of high pressure sits in the Atlantic and deflects storms around it,” DaSilva says. “Most of them curve out to sea and head to Europe, but if that high is a little bit stronger, it bulges, forcing storms westward.”
The Bermuda–Azores High, though, is a dynamic system that can change throughout the season, making it difficult to predict exact storm tracks more than a few days in advance. “It changes a lot – often it’s just a matter of timing,” DaSilva says.
Another major influence this season lies across the ocean in West Africa.
Many of the most powerful Atlantic storms begin life as disorganised clusters of thunderstorms that roll off the African coast in late summer – a conveyor belt of weather systems known as the African Easterly Jet. In fact, around 85 per cent of major hurricanes begin life here.
But the system is sensitive. Last year, a surprise cooling off the West African coast near the equator disrupted the jet stream and shunted storms northwards, reducing their development.
“People thought the Atlantic was broken,” DaSilva says, recalling a lull in activity around late August and early September. The culprit was a pattern called the Atlantic Niño, a lesser-known climate cycle that, confusingly, has the opposite effect on hurricane activity to its Pacific namesake.
DaSilva suspects we may see a similar midsummer pause this year, though a break in activity doesn’t mean the season is over.
Creeping inland
Beyond the coastlines, another shift is quietly changing the stakes of the Atlantic hurricane season: more storms are delivering impacts deep inland.
A 2020 study in Nature found that over the past 50 years, landfalling hurricanes have declined more slowly, showing a 94 per cent reduction in the rate at which they weaken. That means more storms are maintaining strength as they push inland, increasing the risk of damage far from the coast.
In 2024, Hurricane Helene battered Florida before unleashing deadly floods in the southern Appalachian Mountains, killing 94 people directly and contributing to over 100 additional deaths. Hurricane Beryl, meanwhile, spawned tornadoes all the way up in western New York after striking down in Texas.
“2024 was one of the costliest seasons on record, and a lot of it came down to inland impacts,” says DaSilva. “It’s really important that people well away from the coastline monitor the hurricane forecast just as much as people at the coast because those inland impacts can be just as devastating.”
So, whether you’re on the coast or well inland, the science offers a clear signal: conditions are primed for activity in 2025. Keep an eye on the forecast.
About our expert
Alex DaSilva is a long-range meteorologist and hurricane meteorologist at AccuWeather, specialising in long-range forecasting and tropical meteorology. Today, he is AccuWeather's lead hurricane forecaster, regularly appearing on broadcasts and live events to warn media and the public alike of upcoming major storm events.
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